Sorana Cirstea
Coco Gauff
26%
74%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

WTA Mutua Madrid Open
R32 · Clay · 23 Apr 2026 · WTA 1000

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Cirstea
  • Straight Sets Rate 8 +1.1pp
  • Match Count 4w +1.1pp
  • Match Count 128w +0.4pp
  • Tiebreaks Played 8 +0.4pp
  • Deciding Sets Played 64 +0.2pp
  • Tiebreak Rate 64 +0.2pp
  • Win Rate 64w +0.2pp
  • Country Win Rate +0.2pp
Toward Gauff
  • ELO Diff -12.9pp
  • Surface ELO Diff -4.6pp
  • Days Since Debut -2.1pp
  • Surface ELO -1.5pp
  • Matches 7d Diff Ab -1.5pp
  • Opponent ELO Avg 8 -1.5pp
  • H2H Dominance -1.3pp
  • Surface Gap -0.6pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings -19.7pp
  • Activity -2.1pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery -1.5pp
  • Opponent Quality -1.5pp
  • Score Profile +1.4pp
  • Head to Head -1.3pp
  • Recent Form +0.6pp
  • Match Context +0.3pp
  • Data Confidence -0.2pp
  • Country Performance +0.2pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Cirstea Gauff
Level G +0.0pp 0
Level M +0.0pp 1
Level C -0.0pp 0
Level F +0.1pp 0
Round Q1 +0.0pp 0
Tour Wta +0.1pp 1
Feature Cirstea Gauff
ELO +0.0pp 3089.7 3598.4
Surface ELO -1.5pp 1455.2 2154.5
Surface Gap -0.6pp -1634.5 -1443.9
ELO Diff -12.9pp -508.7
Surface ELO Diff -4.6pp -699.3
Feature Cirstea Gauff
Match Count 4w +1.1pp 4 3
Win Rate 8w -0.1pp 73% 70%
Match Count 8w -0.1pp 11 10
Match Count 16w +0.0pp 24 20
Match Count 32w -0.4pp 37 30
Win Rate 64w +0.2pp 67% 71%
Match Count 64w -0.2pp 67 69
Match Count 128w +0.4pp 97 140
Match Count 512w -0.4pp 311 295