Qinwen Zheng
Elena Rybakina
27%
73%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

WTA Mutua Madrid Open
R32 · Clay · 23 Apr 2026 · WTA 1000

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Zheng
  • Match Count 64w +2.0pp
  • Tiebreak Rate 64 +1.1pp
  • Surface ELO Diff +0.8pp
  • Country Win Rate +0.8pp
  • Tour Wta +0.6pp
  • ELO +0.6pp
  • Win Rate 8w +0.6pp
  • Match Count 128w +0.5pp
Toward Rybakina
  • ELO Diff -22.1pp
  • Match Count 4w -3.2pp
  • Straight Sets Rate 8 -2.3pp
  • Matches 7d Diff Ab -1.4pp
  • Match Count 8w -1.2pp
  • Surface Gap -1.0pp
  • Days Since Last -0.7pp
  • Match Count 16w -0.6pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings -21.6pp
  • Recent Form -1.8pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery -1.2pp
  • Match Context +0.8pp
  • Country Performance +0.8pp
  • Opponent Quality +0.7pp
  • Activity -0.5pp
  • Data Confidence -0.4pp
  • Score Profile -0.3pp
  • Head to Head +0.3pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Zheng Rybakina
Level G +0.1pp 0
Level M +0.1pp 1
Level C +0.0pp 0
Level F -0.1pp 0
Round Q1 -0.0pp 0
Tour Wta +0.6pp 1
Feature Zheng Rybakina
ELO +0.6pp 3185.3 4140.0
Surface ELO +0.1pp 2106.6 2043.1
Surface Gap -1.0pp -1078.7 -2096.9
ELO Diff -22.1pp -954.6
Surface ELO Diff +0.8pp 63.6
Feature Zheng Rybakina
Match Count 4w -3.2pp 0 5
Win Rate 8w +0.6pp 50% 93%
Match Count 8w -1.2pp 4 15
Match Count 16w -0.6pp 7 30
Match Count 32w -0.2pp 9 42
Win Rate 64w +0.2pp 64% 76%
Match Count 64w +2.0pp 36 92
Match Count 128w +0.5pp 93 149
Match Count 512w -0.1pp 269 421