Stefanos Tsitsipas
Daniel Merida
26%
74%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

ATP ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
R32 · Clay · 27 Apr 2026 · Masters 1000

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Tsitsipas
  • Match Count 128w +3.9pp
  • Match Count 64w +2.8pp
  • Win Rate 64w +2.1pp
  • Surface ELO Diff +1.2pp
  • Win Rate 8w +1.1pp
  • Matches 7d Diff Ab +1.0pp
  • Set Diff Avg 64 +1.0pp
  • Match Count 32w +0.7pp
Toward Merida
  • ELO Diff -25.9pp
  • Days Since Debut -3.0pp
  • Straight Sets Rate 8 -2.1pp
  • Surface Gap -1.8pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches -1.4pp
  • Tiebreak Rate 64 -1.3pp
  • Matches This Tournament Diff Ab -1.0pp
  • Tiebreaks Played 64 -0.6pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings -26.8pp
  • Recent Form +10.6pp
  • Score Profile -4.4pp
  • Activity -3.0pp
  • Match Context +0.3pp
  • Opponent Quality -0.1pp
  • Country Performance +0.1pp
  • Data Confidence +0.0pp
  • Head to Head -0.0pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery -0.0pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Tsitsipas Merida
Level G +0.1pp 0
Level M +0.4pp 1
Level C -0.0pp 0
Level F -0.2pp 0
Round Q1 +0.0pp 0
Tour Wta -0.0pp 0
Feature Tsitsipas Merida
ELO -0.2pp 1730.0 2918.3
Surface ELO -0.0pp 1969.1 1749.7
Surface Gap -1.8pp 239.1 -1168.6
ELO Diff -25.9pp -1188.3
Surface ELO Diff +1.2pp 219.4
Feature Tsitsipas Merida
Match Count 4w -0.2pp 9 13
Win Rate 8w +1.1pp 29% 70%
Match Count 8w -0.4pp 17 20
Match Count 16w -0.1pp 35 32
Match Count 32w +0.7pp 56 49
Win Rate 64w +2.1pp 42% 68%
Match Count 64w +2.8pp 146 100
Match Count 128w +3.9pp 260 203
Match Count 512w +0.6pp 924 337