Jiri Lehecka
Lorenzo Musetti
47%
53%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

ATP ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
R16 · Clay · 28 Apr 2026 · Masters 1000

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Lehecka
  • H2H Dominance +0.8pp
  • Opponent ELO Avg 8 +0.6pp
  • ELO +0.2pp
  • Tiebreak Rate 64 +0.2pp
  • Match Count 64w +0.1pp
  • Match Count 8w +0.1pp
  • Match Count 32w +0.1pp
  • Set Diff Avg 64 +0.1pp
Toward Musetti
  • ELO Diff -1.9pp
  • Surface ELO Diff -1.7pp
  • Straight Sets Rate 8 -0.4pp
  • Win Rate 8w -0.4pp
  • Surface Gap -0.2pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches -0.1pp
  • Days Since Debut -0.1pp
  • Surface ELO -0.1pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings -3.8pp
  • Head to Head +0.7pp
  • Opponent Quality +0.6pp
  • Score Profile -0.4pp
  • Activity -0.2pp
  • Match Context +0.1pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery +0.1pp
  • Country Performance +0.0pp
  • Data Confidence +0.0pp
  • Recent Form +0.0pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Lehecka Musetti
Level G +0.0pp 0
Level M +0.0pp 1
Level C -0.0pp 0
Level F +0.0pp 0
Round Q1 -0.0pp 0
Tour Wta +0.0pp 0
Feature Lehecka Musetti
ELO +0.2pp 3535.5 3750.7
Surface ELO -0.1pp 1773.9 2355.4
Surface Gap -0.2pp -1761.7 -1395.3
ELO Diff -1.9pp -215.2
Surface ELO Diff -1.7pp -581.6
Feature Lehecka Musetti
Match Count 4w -0.1pp 5 7
Win Rate 8w -0.4pp 75% 50%
Match Count 8w +0.1pp 12 8
Match Count 16w +0.1pp 21 17
Match Count 32w +0.1pp 31 41
Win Rate 64w +0.0pp 62% 66%
Match Count 64w +0.1pp 73 80
Match Count 128w +0.1pp 128 161
Match Count 512w -0.1pp 413 462