Zizou Bergs
Alejandro Tabilo
45%
55%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

CHL Aix-en-Provence
F · Clay · 03 May 2026 · Challenger
Tabilo 6 4 6
Bergs 4 6 3

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Bergs
  • H2H Dominance +2.3pp
  • Straight Sets Rate 8 +1.1pp
  • Match Count 32w +1.1pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches +0.9pp
  • Win Rate 64w +0.8pp
  • Surface ELO Match Count +0.6pp
  • Match Count 64w +0.4pp
  • Wins Vs Higher ELO 8 +0.3pp
Toward Tabilo
  • ELO Diff -5.3pp
  • Surface ELO Diff -3.7pp
  • Game Diff Avg 64 -1.3pp
  • Days Since Debut -0.9pp
  • Deciding Sets Played 64 -0.6pp
  • Surface Gap -0.6pp
  • Surface ELO -0.6pp
  • Match Count 512w -0.5pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings -10.4pp
  • Head to Head +2.5pp
  • Recent Form +2.4pp
  • Activity -1.0pp
  • Data Confidence +0.5pp
  • Opponent Quality +0.4pp
  • Score Profile +0.4pp
  • Country Performance +0.2pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery +0.1pp
  • Match Context +0.1pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Bergs Tabilo
Level G +0.0pp 0
Level M -0.0pp 0
Level C +0.0pp 1
Level F +0.0pp 0
Round Q1 +0.0pp 0
Tour Wta -0.0pp 0
Feature Bergs Tabilo
ELO -0.3pp 3090.6 3292.6
Surface ELO -0.6pp 1800.8 2251.3
Surface Gap -0.6pp -1289.9 -1041.3
ELO Diff -5.3pp -202.0
Surface ELO Diff -3.7pp -450.6
Feature Bergs Tabilo
Match Count 4w +0.2pp 9 8
Win Rate 8w +0.1pp 64% 64%
Match Count 8w +0.0pp 11 11
Match Count 16w +0.3pp 18 34
Match Count 32w +1.1pp 32 52
Win Rate 64w +0.8pp 51% 62%
Match Count 64w +0.4pp 69 84
Match Count 128w +0.0pp 157 154
Match Count 512w -0.5pp 517 566