Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Alexander Shevchenko
64%
36%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

ATP ATP Masters 1000 Rome
R128 · Clay · 06 May 2026 · Masters 1000
Shevchenko 6 4 7
Carabelli 3 6 6

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Carabelli
  • ELO Diff +7.4pp
  • Surface ELO Diff +5.4pp
  • Opponent ELO Avg 8 +1.7pp
  • Wins Vs Higher ELO 8 +1.5pp
  • Surface ELO +1.4pp
  • Set Diff Avg 64 +0.4pp
  • Surface Gap +0.3pp
  • Tiebreak Rate 64 +0.3pp
Toward Shevchenko
  • Days Since Debut -1.3pp
  • Game Diff Avg 64 -0.9pp
  • Surface ELO Match Count -0.7pp
  • Matches 7d Diff Ab -0.7pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches -0.6pp
  • Deciding Sets Played 64 -0.5pp
  • Win Rate 8w -0.3pp
  • ELO -0.1pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings +14.3pp
  • Opponent Quality +3.2pp
  • Activity -1.2pp
  • Score Profile -1.1pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery -0.7pp
  • Data Confidence -0.6pp
  • Recent Form +0.4pp
  • Country Performance +0.1pp
  • Match Context -0.0pp
  • Head to Head +0.0pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Carabelli Shevchenko
Level G -0.0pp 0
Level M -0.0pp 1
Level C +0.0pp 0
Level F +0.0pp 0
Round Q1 +0.0pp 0
Tour Wta -0.0pp 0
Feature Carabelli Shevchenko
ELO -0.1pp 2884.4 2632.5
Surface ELO +1.4pp 2292.2 1629.3
Surface Gap +0.3pp -592.2 -1003.2
ELO Diff +7.4pp 251.9
Surface ELO Diff +5.4pp 662.9
Feature Carabelli Shevchenko
Match Count 4w +0.3pp 4 4
Win Rate 8w -0.3pp 60% 50%
Match Count 8w +0.1pp 10 12
Match Count 16w +0.1pp 23 26
Match Count 32w +0.1pp 32 35
Win Rate 64w -0.1pp 52% 49%
Match Count 64w +0.2pp 77 87
Match Count 128w +0.2pp 176 151
Match Count 512w -0.1pp 588 482