Anton Matusevich
Braden Shick
60%
40%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

ITF M25 NOTTINGHAM
F · Hard · 11 May 2026 · ITF $25K
Shick 7 6
Matusevich 6 4

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Matusevich
  • ELO Diff +11.5pp
  • Surface ELO Diff +2.6pp
  • Straight Sets Rate 8 +2.0pp
  • Matches 7d Diff Ab +1.0pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches +0.8pp
  • Match Count 32w +0.6pp
  • Surface ELO +0.5pp
  • Opponent ELO Avg 8 +0.4pp
Toward Shick
  • Days Since Debut -2.8pp
  • Match Count 512w -2.3pp
  • Surface ELO Match Count -1.5pp
  • Game Diff Avg 64 -1.4pp
  • Surface Gap -0.9pp
  • Match Count 128w -0.8pp
  • Country Win Rate -0.5pp
  • Wins Vs Higher ELO 8 -0.5pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings +14.1pp
  • Activity -2.6pp
  • Recent Form -2.1pp
  • Score Profile +1.9pp
  • Data Confidence -1.3pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery +1.0pp
  • Country Performance -0.5pp
  • Match Context -0.1pp
  • Opponent Quality -0.1pp
  • Head to Head +0.0pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Matusevich Shick
Level G -0.0pp 0
Level M +0.0pp 0
Level C +0.0pp 0
Level F -0.1pp 0
Round Q1 +0.0pp 0
Tour Wta -0.0pp 0
Feature Matusevich Shick
ELO +0.4pp 2256.5 1826.3
Surface ELO +0.5pp 2212.6 1765.9
Surface Gap -0.9pp -43.9 -60.4
ELO Diff +11.5pp 430.2
Surface ELO Diff +2.6pp 446.7
Feature Matusevich Shick
Match Count 4w +0.2pp 13 10
Win Rate 8w -0.4pp 79% 62%
Match Count 8w +0.1pp 14 13
Match Count 16w -0.0pp 33 28
Match Count 32w +0.6pp 47 57
Win Rate 64w +0.1pp 66% 69%
Match Count 64w +0.2pp 68 67
Match Count 128w -0.8pp 134 72
Match Count 512w -2.3pp 321 88