Anastasiya Konstantinovna Sobolieva
Claire Liu
37%
63%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

ITF W75 TRNAVA
QF · Hard · 15 May 2026 · ITF $75K
Liu 4 6 7
Sobolieva 6 3 6

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Sobolieva
  • Days Since Debut +2.3pp
  • Matches 7d Diff Ab +1.6pp
  • Match Count 4w +1.4pp
  • Surface Gap +0.6pp
  • Win Rate 64w +0.3pp
  • Set Diff Avg 64 +0.2pp
  • Tiebreaks Played 8 +0.1pp
  • Match Count 8w +0.1pp
Toward Liu
  • ELO Diff -4.1pp
  • Match Count 128w -3.0pp
  • Opponent ELO Avg 8 -2.0pp
  • Game Diff Avg 64 -1.6pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches -1.6pp
  • Match Count 64w -1.5pp
  • Match Count 512w -1.4pp
  • Surface ELO Match Count -1.1pp
Group totals
  • Recent Form -4.7pp
  • ELO Ratings -4.5pp
  • Score Profile -3.9pp
  • Activity +2.3pp
  • Opponent Quality -2.2pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery +1.5pp
  • Data Confidence -1.2pp
  • Match Context -0.1pp
  • Country Performance +0.1pp
  • Head to Head -0.0pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Sobolieva Liu
Level G +0.0pp 0
Level M +0.0pp 0
Level C -0.0pp 0
Level F -0.0pp 0
Round Q1 -0.0pp 0
Tour Wta -0.0pp 0
Feature Sobolieva Liu
ELO -0.2pp 1773.1 1928.6
Surface ELO +0.0pp 1893.0 1935.7
Surface Gap +0.6pp 119.9 7.1
ELO Diff -4.1pp -155.5
Surface ELO Diff -0.8pp -42.7
Feature Sobolieva Liu
Match Count 4w +1.4pp 7 3
Win Rate 8w -0.2pp 71% 78%
Match Count 8w +0.1pp 17 9
Match Count 16w -0.0pp 24 14
Match Count 32w -0.3pp 35 16
Win Rate 64w +0.3pp 53% 61%
Match Count 64w -1.5pp 75 23
Match Count 128w -3.0pp 134 37
Match Count 512w -1.4pp 262 152