Lan Mi
Darja Suvirdjonkova
77%
23%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

ITF W15 GABORONE
QF · Hard · 15 May 2026 · ITF $15K
Mi 7 6
Suvirdjonkova 5 2

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Mi
  • ELO Diff +16.7pp
  • Surface ELO Diff +4.3pp
  • Game Diff Avg 64 +2.3pp
  • Surface ELO +1.7pp
  • Straight Sets Rate 8 +1.7pp
  • ELO +1.4pp
  • H2H Dominance +1.3pp
  • Days Since Debut +1.3pp
Toward Suvirdjonkova
  • Wins Vs Higher ELO 8 -2.7pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches -0.9pp
  • Win Rate 64w -0.7pp
  • Deciding Sets Played 64 -0.6pp
  • Set Diff Avg 64 -0.6pp
  • Match Count 32w -0.4pp
  • Match Count 128w -0.4pp
  • Country Win Rate -0.3pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings +24.0pp
  • Opponent Quality -3.0pp
  • Score Profile +2.4pp
  • Activity +1.4pp
  • Head to Head +1.4pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery +1.2pp
  • Recent Form -0.4pp
  • Country Performance -0.3pp
  • Data Confidence +0.2pp
  • Match Context +0.1pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Mi Suvirdjonkova
Level G -0.0pp 0
Level M +0.0pp 0
Level C +0.0pp 0
Level F +0.0pp 0
Round Q1 +0.0pp 0
Tour Wta +0.0pp 0
Feature Mi Suvirdjonkova
ELO +1.4pp 1584.9 939.8
Surface ELO +1.7pp 1588.3 943.4
Surface Gap -0.1pp 3.4 3.6
ELO Diff +16.7pp 645.1
Surface ELO Diff +4.3pp 644.9
Feature Mi Suvirdjonkova
Match Count 4w +0.8pp 16 10
Win Rate 8w +0.1pp 83% 80%
Match Count 8w +0.3pp 18 10
Match Count 16w -0.2pp 21 11
Match Count 32w -0.4pp 47 21
Win Rate 64w -0.7pp 61% 40%
Match Count 64w -0.3pp 74 45
Match Count 128w -0.4pp 86 76
Match Count 512w +0.4pp 86 106