Mccartney Kessler
Oksana Selekhmeteva
53%
47%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

WTA Internationaux de Strasbourg
Q1 · Clay · 17 May 2026 · WTA 500
Kessler 6 6
Selekhmeteva 4 4

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Kessler
  • ELO Diff +4.6pp
  • Matches 7d Diff Ab +2.0pp
  • Opponent ELO Avg 8 +1.0pp
  • Straight Sets Rate 8 +0.7pp
  • Wins Vs Higher ELO 8 +0.7pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches +0.6pp
  • Days Since Last +0.4pp
  • Tour Wta +0.3pp
Toward Selekhmeteva
  • Surface ELO Diff -2.5pp
  • Country Win Rate -2.2pp
  • Surface ELO -2.1pp
  • Days Since Debut -0.9pp
  • Surface ELO Match Count -0.5pp
  • Match Count 128w -0.4pp
  • Matches This Tournament Diff Ab -0.4pp
  • Win Rate 8w -0.3pp
Group totals
  • Country Performance -2.2pp
  • Score Profile +1.7pp
  • Opponent Quality +1.7pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery +1.6pp
  • Activity -0.6pp
  • Data Confidence -0.4pp
  • Match Context +0.4pp
  • ELO Ratings +0.3pp
  • Recent Form +0.2pp
  • Head to Head +0.1pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Kessler Selekhmeteva
Level G +0.0pp 0
Level M +0.0pp 0
Level C +0.0pp 0
Level F +0.0pp 0
Round Q1 -0.0pp 1
Tour Wta +0.3pp 1
Feature Kessler Selekhmeteva
ELO +0.1pp 2608.7 2457.5
Surface ELO -2.1pp 1220.7 1649.0
Surface Gap +0.1pp -1388 -808.5
ELO Diff +4.6pp 151.2
Surface ELO Diff -2.5pp -428.3
Feature Kessler Selekhmeteva
Match Count 4w +0.1pp 4 4
Win Rate 8w -0.3pp 62% 38%
Match Count 8w +0.0pp 8 8
Match Count 16w +0.1pp 17 17
Match Count 32w +0.1pp 28 32
Win Rate 64w +0.2pp 58% 61%
Match Count 64w +0.2pp 66 72
Match Count 128w -0.4pp 128 117
Match Count 512w +0.2pp 206 231