Miomir Kecmanovic
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
42%
58%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

CHL Valencia
F · Clay · 17 May 2026 · Challenger
Kecmanovic 6 3 6
Vallejo 2 6 2

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Kecmanovic
  • Win Rate 64w +2.7pp
  • Match Count 64w +1.9pp
  • Match Count 32w +1.3pp
  • Deciding Sets Played 64 +1.0pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches +0.9pp
  • Win Rate 8w +0.9pp
  • Opponent ELO Avg 8 +0.6pp
  • Match Count 128w +0.5pp
Toward Vallejo
  • Surface ELO Diff -5.2pp
  • Days Since Debut -3.6pp
  • ELO Diff -3.4pp
  • Country Win Rate -2.5pp
  • Match Count 512w -1.4pp
  • Game Diff Avg 64 -1.0pp
  • Wins Vs Higher ELO 8 -0.8pp
  • Surface Gap -0.7pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings -10.1pp
  • Recent Form +5.9pp
  • Activity -3.6pp
  • Country Performance -2.5pp
  • Score Profile +2.3pp
  • Opponent Quality -0.2pp
  • Head to Head +0.1pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery +0.1pp
  • Data Confidence -0.0pp
  • Match Context -0.0pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Kecmanovic Vallejo
Level G -0.0pp 0
Level M -0.0pp 0
Level C -0.0pp 1
Level F +0.0pp 0
Round Q1 +0.0pp 0
Tour Wta -0.0pp 0
Feature Kecmanovic Vallejo
ELO -0.0pp 3050.2 3172.1
Surface ELO -0.7pp 1754.6 2415.3
Surface Gap -0.7pp -1295.5 -756.8
ELO Diff -3.4pp -121.9
Surface ELO Diff -5.2pp -660.7
Feature Kecmanovic Vallejo
Match Count 4w -0.1pp 7 10
Win Rate 8w +0.9pp 56% 75%
Match Count 8w -0.1pp 9 12
Match Count 16w +0.2pp 24 29
Match Count 32w +1.3pp 35 56
Win Rate 64w +2.7pp 43% 69%
Match Count 64w +1.9pp 68 97
Match Count 128w +0.5pp 138 175
Match Count 512w -1.4pp 547 270