David Jorda Sanchis
Denis Yevseyev
50%
50%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

CHL Istanbul
R16 · Hard · 20 May 2026 · Challenger
Sanchis 7 6
Yevseyev 5 2

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Sanchis
  • ELO Diff +4.1pp
  • Match Count 4w +2.5pp
  • Surface ELO Match Count +1.4pp
  • Wins Vs Higher ELO 8 +1.2pp
  • Straight Sets Rate 8 +1.1pp
  • Days Since Debut +0.8pp
  • Surface Gap +0.7pp
  • Game Diff Avg 64 +0.6pp
Toward Yevseyev
  • Surface ELO Diff -1.9pp
  • Win Rate 8w -1.3pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches -1.2pp
  • H2H Dominance -1.2pp
  • Match Count 64w -1.2pp
  • Win Rate 64w -1.2pp
  • Country Win Rate -1.1pp
  • Match Count 512w -0.9pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings +2.3pp
  • Recent Form -2.2pp
  • Data Confidence +1.5pp
  • Head to Head -1.2pp
  • Country Performance -1.1pp
  • Activity +0.9pp
  • Score Profile -0.7pp
  • Opponent Quality +0.6pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery -0.2pp
  • Match Context -0.0pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Sanchis Yevseyev
Level G -0.0pp 0
Level M +0.0pp 0
Level C +0.0pp 1
Level F -0.0pp 0
Round Q1 -0.0pp 0
Tour Wta +0.0pp 0
Feature Sanchis Yevseyev
ELO +0.3pp 2068.0 1904.6
Surface ELO -0.8pp 1560.6 1824.8
Surface Gap +0.7pp -507.5 -79.8
ELO Diff +4.1pp 163.4
Surface ELO Diff -1.9pp -264.2
Feature Sanchis Yevseyev
Match Count 4w +2.5pp 6 2
Win Rate 8w -1.3pp 69% 29%
Match Count 8w +0.3pp 13 7
Match Count 16w -0.0pp 25 17
Match Count 32w -0.0pp 45 43
Win Rate 64w -1.2pp 56% 44%
Match Count 64w -1.2pp 102 86
Match Count 128w -0.3pp 159 175
Match Count 512w -0.9pp 405 664