Casper Ruud
Joao Fonseca
66%
34%

Model: trimmed_v3 v1

GSL Roland Garros
R16 · Clay · 31 May 2026 · Grand Slam
Fonseca 7 7 5 6
Ruud 5 6 7 2

Key Factors

Contribution to predicted probability
Toward Ruud
  • ELO Diff +11.1pp
  • Surface ELO Diff +7.1pp
  • Surface ELO +1.9pp
  • Straight Sets Rate 8 +1.8pp
  • Match Count 8w +1.3pp
  • Match Count 4w +1.1pp
  • Surface Gap +0.6pp
  • Country Win Rate +0.6pp
Toward Fonseca
  • Days Since Debut -4.6pp
  • Match Count 512w -2.3pp
  • Surface ELO Match Count -0.9pp
  • Wins Vs Higher ELO 8 -0.7pp
  • Vs Normal Clutch Matches -0.6pp
  • Deciding Sets Played 64 -0.5pp
  • Match Count 64w -0.4pp
  • Game Diff Avg 64 -0.3pp
Group totals
  • ELO Ratings +20.4pp
  • Activity -4.4pp
  • Data Confidence -0.7pp
  • Country Performance +0.6pp
  • Match Context +0.5pp
  • Opponent Quality -0.3pp
  • Recent Form -0.3pp
  • Head to Head +0.2pp
  • Score Profile +0.1pp
  • Fatigue & Recovery -0.0pp

Contributions are model attributions, not causal effects. Values sum to the predicted probability's distance from 50%.

Prediction Breakdown

Feature Ruud Fonseca
Level G +0.5pp 1
Level M +0.0pp 0
Level C +0.0pp 0
Level F -0.0pp 0
Round Q1 +0.0pp 0
Tour Wta +0.0pp 0
Feature Ruud Fonseca
ELO -0.1pp 4031.2 3625.8
Surface ELO +1.9pp 2667.1 1853.1
Surface Gap +0.6pp -1364.1 -1772.8
ELO Diff +11.1pp 405.3
Surface ELO Diff +7.1pp 814.0
Feature Ruud Fonseca
Match Count 4w +1.1pp 13 4
Win Rate 8w -0.3pp 80% 69%
Match Count 8w +1.3pp 20 13
Match Count 16w +0.0pp 27 22
Match Count 32w -0.2pp 39 30
Win Rate 64w +0.2pp 68% 63%
Match Count 64w -0.4pp 76 59
Match Count 128w +0.4pp 163 133
Match Count 512w -2.3pp 621 160